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S&P 500 and US Dollar Return to Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

S&P 500 and US Dollar Return to Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

2012-07-31 06:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 and the US Dollar have returned to challenge trend-defining technical barriers, with behavior here likely to set the tone for the months ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance at 1392.10, a horizontal barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from late March. Negative RSI divergence argues for a downside scenario. Initial support lines up at 1380.60, with a break below that exposing 1358.40. Alternatively, a push through resistance neutralizes the overall bearish structure and exposes the 1400 figure.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Return_to_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Return to Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to tread water near the 90.00 figure. Initial support remains in the 87.65-88.32 area, marked by the July 3 closing high and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% level at 85.37. Near-term resistance stands at 93.21, the July 19 high.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Return_to_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Return to Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are testing resistance in the 1615.65-35.70 area after taking out falling trend line resistance set from late March, with a break higher initially exposing 1671.49. The trend line, now at the 1596.55, has been recast as the first major layer of near-term support.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Return_to_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Return to Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are probing lower toward the 10,000 figure – a barrier reinforced by a major rising trend line set from late July – after taking out range support at 10041. A daily close below the latter boundary would make the case for a significant bearish trend change. The 10041 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_and_US_Dollar_Return_to_Trend-Defining_Technical_Barriers_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 and US Dollar Return to Trend-Defining Technical Barriers

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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