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S&P 500 Chart Setup Still Bearish After Bounce, Hinting at Dollar Gains

S&P 500 Chart Setup Still Bearish After Bounce, Hinting at Dollar Gains

2012-07-26 05:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: S&P 500 technical positioning continues to call for weakness in the days ahead, implying the likelihood of an advance in the safe-haven US Dollar.

S&P 500 – Prices bounced from minor support at 1324.60, the July 12 low, to retest support-turned-resistance in the 1334.40-41.90 area. A break above this boundary exposes 1357.00. The overall bearish structure identified yesterday remains in place, with the move higher seen as corrective within a larger decline to 1285.50, a measured target implied by the Rising Wedge pattern set from early June.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Still_Bearish_After_Bounce_Hinting_at_Dollar_Gains_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Still Bearish After Bounce, Hinting at Dollar Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing support in the 87.65-88.32 area, marked by the July 3 closing high and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break downward initially exposes the 23.6% level at 85.37. Near-term resistance lines up at 93.21, the July 19 high.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Still_Bearish_After_Bounce_Hinting_at_Dollar_Gains_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Still Bearish After Bounce, Hinting at Dollar Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices took out resistance at 1588.90 to expose falling trend line resistance now at 1604.26. A break above this level exposes swing highs at 1624.81 and 1633.80. The 1588.90 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below that aiming to challenge rising trend line barriers at 1576.29 and 1561.70

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Still_Bearish_After_Bounce_Hinting_at_Dollar_Gains_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Still Bearish After Bounce, Hinting at Dollar Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are pulling back from resistance in the 10145-74 region marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and a horizontal pivot level. Near-term support lines up in the familiar 10032-67 region, with a break below that exposing a rising trend line now at 9969. Alternatively, a reversal higher through resistance aims to challenge the 38.2% Fib at 10219.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Still_Bearish_After_Bounce_Hinting_at_Dollar_Gains_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Still Bearish After Bounce, Hinting at Dollar Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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