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US Dollar Approaches Key Support, S&P 500 Positioning Favors Losses

US Dollar Approaches Key Support, S&P 500 Positioning Favors Losses

2012-07-17 01:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is approaching key support while S&P 500 positioning continues to favor losses despite the recent upswing, hinting the greenback may rebound.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a Rising Wedge chart formation broken last week, now at 1359.70. The barrier is reinforced by a familiar horizontal support-turned-resistance level at 1363.90. Friday’s rebound appears corrective thus far, with overall positioning still arguing for a bearish scenario. Initial support lines up in the 1334.40-41.90 area, with a break below that exposing swing bottoms at 1308.90 and 1290.10.

US_Dollar_Approaches_Key_Support_SP_500_Positioning_Favors_Losses_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Approaches Key Support, S&P 500 Positioning Favors Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to trade sideways above support at 84.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term resistance is at 88.40, the 38.2% level, with a break above that exposing the 90.00 figure and the 50% Fib at 91.84. Alternatively, a breach of support targets the 81.19-52 area marked by the June 4 low and the 14.6% retracement.

US_Dollar_Approaches_Key_Support_SP_500_Positioning_Favors_Losses_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Approaches Key Support, S&P 500 Positioning Favors Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke back above 1575.81, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 23.6% level sitting squarely at the 1600/oz figure once again. A falling trend line set from late March, now at 1612.47, compounds resistance. A break above the latter boundary initially exposes the July 3 high at 1624.81. The 1575.81 level has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back below that targeting the 50% Fib at 1555.83.

US_Dollar_Approaches_Key_Support_SP_500_Positioning_Favors_Losses_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Approaches Key Support, S&P 500 Positioning Favors Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLARPrices took out support at 10139, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, to challenge the bottom of a rising channel set from the June 20 low (now at 10085). A break below this boundary would neutralize the near-term bullish bias and expose familiar support in the 10032-67 area. The 10139 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Approaches_Key_Support_SP_500_Positioning_Favors_Losses_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Approaches Key Support, S&P 500 Positioning Favors Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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