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Dollar Retreats as S&P 500 Corrects Higher, Overall Bias Favors Gains

Dollar Retreats as S&P 500 Corrects Higher, Overall Bias Favors Gains

2012-07-16 04:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar corrected lower as the S&P 500 staged an impressive recovery by overall positioning still favors a supportive outlook for the benchmark currency.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a Rising Wedge chart formation broken last week. The barrier is reinforced by a familiar horizontal barrier at 1363.90. Thus far, the move higher appears corrective, with overall positioning still arguing for a bearish scenario. Initial support lines up in the 1334.40-41.90 area, with a break below that exposing swing bottoms at 1308.90 and 1290.10.

Dollar_Retreats_as_SP_500_Corrects_Higher_Overall_Bias_Favors_Gains_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Retreats as S&P 500 Corrects Higher, Overall Bias Favors Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are consolidating above support at 84.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term resistance is at 88.40, the 38.2% level, with a break above that exposing the 90.00 figure. Alternatively, a breach of support targets the 81.19-52 area marked by the June 4 low and the 14.6% retracement.

Dollar_Retreats_as_SP_500_Corrects_Higher_Overall_Bias_Favors_Gains_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Retreats as S&P 500 Corrects Higher, Overall Bias Favors Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke back above 1575.81, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 23.6% level sitting squarely at the 1600/oz figure once again. A falling trend line set from late March, now at 1612.47, compounds resistance. A break above the latter boundary initially exposes the July 3 high at 1624.81. The 1575.81 level has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back below that targeting the 50% Fib at 1555.83.

Dollar_Retreats_as_SP_500_Corrects_Higher_Overall_Bias_Favors_Gains_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Retreats as S&P 500 Corrects Higher, Overall Bias Favors Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLARPrices recoiled from resistance in the 10209-19 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and 61.8% retracement levels, correcting to retest a falling trend line set from late May swing top. Support is reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 10139, with a break below that exposing the 10032-67 region. Overall positioning suggests the latest selloff represents a correction in the context of a broadly bullish bias however. Near-term resistance is at 10174.

Dollar_Retreats_as_SP_500_Corrects_Higher_Overall_Bias_Favors_Gains_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Retreats as S&P 500 Corrects Higher, Overall Bias Favors Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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