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US Dollar Consolidates as S&P 500 Tests Bearish Breakout Threshold

US Dollar Consolidates as S&P 500 Tests Bearish Breakout Threshold

2012-07-11 02:14:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is awaiting direction cues at resistance as the S&P 500 challenges the threshold of a major bearish breakout, hinting a large selloff may be ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to push lower after completing a bearish Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern, taking out initial support at 1363.90 to expose the 1334.40-41.90 area. A daily close below this boundary confirms a Rising Wedge bearish chart formation, opening the door for a larger downward reversal. The 1363.90 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Consolidates_as_SP_500_Tests_Bearish_Breakout_Threshold_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Consolidates as S&P 500 Tests Bearish Breakout Threshold

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 84.14 having edged lower after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 88.40, the 38.2% level. A break through support exposes 81.19. Alternatively, a rebound that produces a daily close above near-term resistance opens the door for a challenge of the 90.00 figure.

US_Dollar_Consolidates_as_SP_500_Tests_Bearish_Breakout_Threshold_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Consolidates as S&P 500 Tests Bearish Breakout Threshold

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke support at 1575.81, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from late March. Sellers now aim to challenge the 50% Fib at 1555.61, with a break below that exposing the trend-defining 1522.50-32.45 area. The 1575.81 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Consolidates_as_SP_500_Tests_Bearish_Breakout_Threshold_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Consolidates as S&P 500 Tests Bearish Breakout Threshold

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are consolidating below 10174, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, after taking out falling trend lineresistance set from late May. A break higher initially exposes targets the 61.8% level at 10209. Near-term support is marked by the trend line (now at 10144) and reinforced by the 38.2% Fib at 10139.

US_Dollar_Consolidates_as_SP_500_Tests_Bearish_Breakout_Threshold_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Consolidates as S&P 500 Tests Bearish Breakout Threshold

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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