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S&P 500 Nears Confirmation of Key Reversal as US Dollar Breaks Higher

S&P 500 Nears Confirmation of Key Reversal as US Dollar Breaks Higher

2012-07-09 06:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has taken out major trend-defining resistance while the S&P is nearing confirmation of a major bearish reversal chart formation.

S&P 500 – Prices broke lower as expected after completing a bearish Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern, taking out initial support at 1363.90 to expose the 1334.40-41.90 area. A daily close below this boundary confirms a Rising Wedge bearish chart formation, opening the door for a larger reversal. The 1363.90 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Nears_Confirmation_of_Key_Reversal_as_US_Dollar_Breaks_Higher_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Nears Confirmation of Key Reversal as US Dollar Breaks Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices broke lower through resistance-turned-support at 85.50 after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below the 90.00 figure. Sellers now aim to challenge the 82.10-81.19 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and a former range bottom, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 77.83. The 85.50 level has been recast as resistance once again.

SP_500_Nears_Confirmation_of_Key_Reversal_as_US_Dollar_Breaks_Higher_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Nears Confirmation of Key Reversal as US Dollar Breaks Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke lower as expected after showing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from late March. A breach of the 1600/oz figure, a psychological barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, now sees bears challenging the 38.2% level at 1575.81. A break below that targets the 50% Fib at 1555.61. The 1600 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Nears_Confirmation_of_Key_Reversal_as_US_Dollar_Breaks_Higher_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Nears Confirmation of Key Reversal as US Dollar Breaks Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices took out falling trend line resistance set from late May, exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10219 as the next upside objective. The trend line has been recast as near-term support, and now stands at 10141.

SP_500_Nears_Confirmation_of_Key_Reversal_as_US_Dollar_Breaks_Higher_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Nears Confirmation of Key Reversal as US Dollar Breaks Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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