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Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Builds Bearish Chart Setup

Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Builds Bearish Chart Setup

2012-07-06 03:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar finds itself at key resistance as the S&P 500 positioning continues to build the case for a significant bearish reversal ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices completed a bearish Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern at the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1363.90, with a break below that exposing the 1334.40-41.90 area. A daily close beneath the latter boundary will confirm the larger Wedge setup, opening the door for a larger reversal. Wedge top resistance is now at 1381.30, with a break above that exposing 1392.10.

Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Builds_Bearish_Chart_Setup_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Builds Bearish Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are showing a Shooting Star candlestick, hinting at ebbing bullish conviction and warning that a pullback may be ahead. Overall positioning continues to broadly favor the upside however, with the break of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 85.11 arguing for a forthcoming test of resistance at 89.97 marked by the 38.2% level and reinforced by the psychologically significant 90.00 figure. A break back below 85.11 is needed to neutralize upside pressure, exposing 81.19 anew.

Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Builds_Bearish_Chart_Setup_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Builds Bearish Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices completed a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from late March, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at the 1600/oz figure, a psychological barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that exposes the 38.2% level at 1575.81. Trend line resistance is now at 1618.43.

Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Builds_Bearish_Chart_Setup_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Builds Bearish Chart Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing falling trend line resistance set from late May, with a break higher exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10219. Near-term support lines up in the 10032-67 area. A break below that exposes multi-month rising trend line support, now at 9940.

Dollar_Tests_Resistance_as_SP_500_Builds_Bearish_Chart_Setup_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Tests Resistance as S&P 500 Builds Bearish Chart Setup

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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