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S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Coming Selloff as US Dollar Drifts Higher

S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Coming Selloff as US Dollar Drifts Higher

2012-07-05 05:32:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: S&P 500 technical positioning hints the benchmark stock index may be readying a reversal downward while the US Dollar is drifting cautiously higher.

S&P 500 – Prices took out resistance at 1363.90 but overall positioning now appears to be tracing out a Rising Wedge chart pattern, a setup indicative of forthcoming bearish reversal. A Doji candle at the would-be Wedge top warns of ebbing bullish momentum, hinting the move lower might be ready to commence. The 1363.90 level has been recast as support, with a turn lower from here initially exposing the 1334.40-41.90 area anew. Alternatively, a break upward targets 1392.10.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Coming_Selloff_as_US_Dollar_Drifts_Higher_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Coming Selloff as US Dollar Drifts Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices pushed higher as expected after putting in a Piercing Line candlestick pattern, taking out the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 85.11 to expose the 38.2% level at 89.97. The psychologically significant 90.00 reinforces the upside barrier. The 85.11 has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Coming_Selloff_as_US_Dollar_Drifts_Higher_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Coming Selloff as US Dollar Drifts Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are testing falling trend line resistance set from late March (now at 1619.58). A break above this barrier initially exposes the June 6 swing high at 1640.80. Near-term support lines up at 1606.74, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, with a drop back below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1585.44.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Coming_Selloff_as_US_Dollar_Drifts_Higher_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Coming Selloff as US Dollar Drifts Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing resistance at 10112, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher exposing the 50% level at 10132. Near-term support lines up at 10087, the 23.6% Fib, with push through that targeting the 10037-49 area.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Coming_Selloff_as_US_Dollar_Drifts_Higher_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Coming Selloff as US Dollar Drifts Higher

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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