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S&P 500 Tracing Bearish Chart Pattern as US Dollar Continues to Stall

S&P 500 Tracing Bearish Chart Pattern as US Dollar Continues to Stall

2012-07-04 06:06:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 may be starting to trace out a meaningful bearish reversal chart pattern while the US Dollar continues to stall, awaiting direction cues.

S&P 500 – Prices took out resistance at 1363.90 but overall positioning now appears to be tracing out a Rising Wedge chart pattern, a setup indicative of forthcoming bearish reversal. The 1363.90 is recast as support from here, with a turn lower from here exposing the 1334.40-41.90 area anew. Alternatively, a break higher targets 1392.10.

SP_500_Tracing_Bearish_Chart_Pattern_as_US_Dollar_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Tracing Bearish Chart Pattern as US Dollar Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to push higher after a Piercing Line candlestick pattern sparked a reversal as expected, taking out the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 85.11 to expose the 38.2% level at 89.97. The psychologically significant 90.00 reinforces the upside barrier. The 85.11 has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Tracing_Bearish_Chart_Pattern_as_US_Dollar_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Tracing Bearish Chart Pattern as US Dollar Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices took out resistance at 1606.74, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, to challenge falling trend line resistance set from late March (now at 1620.04). A break above this boundary initially exposes the June 6 swing high at 1640.80. The 1606.74 level has been recast as support, with a push back below that exposing the 38.2% Fib at 1585.44.

SP_500_Tracing_Bearish_Chart_Pattern_as_US_Dollar_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Tracing Bearish Chart Pattern as US Dollar Continues to Stall

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are consolidating above support in the 10037-49 area, with resistance seen at 10087 marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this level targets the 38.2% level at 10112. Alternatively, a push below support exposes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 4/30-6/1 advance at 10010 as well as the 10000 figure.

SP_500_Tracing_Bearish_Chart_Pattern_as_US_Dollar_Continues_to_Stall_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Tracing Bearish Chart Pattern as US Dollar Continues to Stall

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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