THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is probing higher after finding interim support while the S&P 500 has stalled at resistance, but a larger reversal remains unconfirmed for now.
S&P 500 – Prices are testing initial resistance at 1363.90 after completing a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern with a break above neckline resistance in the 1334.40-41.90 area. A break above this level exposes 1392.10. Broadly speaking, the H&S setup implies a measured objective at 1419.90, conveniently at the year-to-date closing high. The 1334.40-41.90 region has been recast as support.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 81.07, with a break lower on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 77.34. For the time being, near-term resistance remains at the 87.00 figure, marked by the June 7 high.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices reversed lower from resistance at 1637.35, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, after putting in a bearish Hanging Man candlestick. Sellers are now testing the 1600/oz figure, a barrier reinforced by the 50% Fib, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 1582.10. The 61.8% retracement at 1616.23 is now near-term resitance.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing back above support-turned-resistance in the 10066-70 area, marked by a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 38.2% expansion. A confirmed break back above this boundary exposes the 10129-43 region. Near-term support is at 10,010 at the 61.8% Fib for now.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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