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Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

2012-06-20 04:33:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar broke below a significant support level, opening the door for further weakness, as the S&P 500 built upon a bullish reversal chart formation.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing initial resistance at 1357.40 after completing a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern with a break above neckline resistance in the 1334.40-41.90 area. A break above this level exposes 1392.10. Broadly speaking, the H&S setup implies a measured objective at 1419.90, conveniently at the year-to-date closing high. The 1334.40-41.90 region has been recast as support.

Dollar_Breaks_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_on_Bullish_Reversal_Setup_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to tread water between the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 81.07 and the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure. A break higher initially exposes 90.14. Alternatively, a push through support targets the 38.2% expansion at 77.34.

Dollar_Breaks_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_on_Bullish_Reversal_Setup_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices pulled back to retest the 61.8%Fibonacci retracementat 1616.23, a barrier reinforced by former resistance at a falling trend line set from early March. A break below here exposes the 1600/oz figure. Near-term resistance remains at 1637.35, the 76.4%Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49.

Dollar_Breaks_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_on_Bullish_Reversal_Setup_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices broke support in the 10066-70 area marked by a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 38.2% expansion to expose the 61.8% level at 10010. A push through this level targets the 76.4% retracement at 9936. The 10066-70 region has been recast as near-term resistance.

Dollar_Breaks_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_on_Bullish_Reversal_Setup_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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