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US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

2012-06-13 01:38:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns that a significant medium-term top may be taking shape. S&P 500 positioning still seems to call for weakness.

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-April, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1292.90, with a break below that exposing 1265.30. Trend line resistance is now at 1329.10, with a break above that targeting upside barriers at 1357.40 and 1392.10.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_a_Top_May_Be_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices took out support at 83.30 the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 23.6% barrier at 81.07. A break beneath this boundary targets the 80.00 figure and the 38.2% Fib at 77.33. The 14.6% expansion has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_a_Top_May_Be_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke back above the 1600/oz figure to challenge resistance at 1616.23, the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from early March. A break above this boundary exposes the 76.4% Fib at 1637.35. The 1600 level has been recast as near-term support, with added reinforcement coming in courtesy of the 50% retracement at 1599.17.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_a_Top_May_Be_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices continue to look for direction above support in the 10134-43 area, which now appears like the would-be neckline of a Head and Shoulders top chart formation. A break lower confirms the setup and initially opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10066. The H&S formation would imply a measured downside target at 9945. Near-term resistance lines up at 10220, the 61.8% Fib, with a breach higher targeting the 76.4% boundary at 10316.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_a_Top_May_Be_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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