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US Dollar Probes Below Support as S&P 500 Builds Toward Rebound

US Dollar Probes Below Support as S&P 500 Builds Toward Rebound

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is probing below initial support while the S&P 500 appears to have found a near-term bottom, with the chart setup hinting a bounce is ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance in the 1288.00-1292.90 areamarked by the October 27 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Positive RSI divergence warns of a possible upswing. A break higher exposes the 23.6% Fib at 1306.50.

US_Dollar_Probes_Below_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_Toward_Rebound_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Probes Below Support as S&P 500 Builds Toward Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, hinting an upswing is ahead. Highly oversold RSI studies reinforce the risk of a rebound. Initial resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a break lower initially exposes 80.16.”

US_Dollar_Probes_Below_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_Toward_Rebound_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Probes Below Support as S&P 500 Builds Toward Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1627.48. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 swing high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.

US_Dollar_Probes_Below_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_Toward_Rebound_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Probes Below Support as S&P 500 Builds Toward Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing through support at 10220, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level, after putting in a bearish Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence. A confirmed break on a daily closing basis exposes support in the 10134-43 area. Near-term resistance lines up at 10316, the 76.4%expansion.

US_Dollar_Probes_Below_Support_as_SP_500_Builds_Toward_Rebound_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Probes Below Support as S&P 500 Builds Toward Rebound

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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