THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the safe-haven currency may be due for a pullback despite a sharp move lower from the S&P 500.
S&P 500 – Prices are probing through support in the 1288.00-1292.90 areamarked by the October 27 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion to challenge the 50% Fib at 1273.40. A break of the latter boundary exposes the 61.8% expansion at 1258.70. The 1300.00 figure establishes the first layer of major resistance.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing through support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below this boundary exposing 80.16. Highly oversold RSI studies warn that the risk of a corrective rebound may be swelling. Near-term resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1630.24. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are showing a dramatic Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 10316, the 76.4%Fibonacci expansion, coupled with negative RSI divergence. The setup hints a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 10220, the 61.8% level, with a break below that exposing the 10134-43 area.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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