THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning suggests prices are likely to pull back further before the larger advance building over the past 10 months regains momentum.
S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance at 1331.70 marked by the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 100% level at 1347.70. Near-term support is at the 1300.00 figure, a psychological barrier reinforced by former resistance at the top of a broken falling channel set from the May 1 high, with a break below that exposing the October 27 swing top at 1292.90.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices put in a Harami candlestick pattern above resistance-turned-support at 90.14, the September 7 closing high, hinting a corrective bounce may be ahead. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance lines up at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low, with a push above that targeting 95.41 (another former bottom now acting as resistance at the February 2 low).
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices continue to consolidate above support in the 1522.50-1532.45 area. Near-term trend line support-turned-resistance lines up at 1584.56. A break above this boundary exposes the 1600/oz figure followed by the top of a channel set from late February, now at 1621.73.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices completed a Breakaway bearish candlestick pattern below resistance at 10241, the 100% Fibonacci expansion level, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up in the 10134-41 area, marked by the 76.4% expansion and the October 2011 swing high. A break lower on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% Fib at 10078.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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