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US Dollar May Pull Back After Breaking Out of Seven-Month Congestion

US Dollar May Pull Back After Breaking Out of Seven-Month Congestion

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is staging an impressive recovery to once again challenge key resistance at the 2011 swing high. S&P 500 positioning warns of a deeper upswing.

S&P 500 – Prices stalled ahead of resistance at 1322.10, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a Doji candlestick pointing to indecision. Initial support lines up at 1310.00, the 14.6% Fib, with a break below that exposing the May 21 low at 1290.30. Importantly, the Bullish Engulfing candle pattern identified yesterday remains valid, leaving the possibility of upward resumption still on the table. A break above resistance clears the way for a test of the 38.2% retracement at 1341.70.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_After_Breaking_Out_of_Seven-Month_Congestion_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Pull Back After Breaking Out of Seven-Month Congestion

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Follow-through failed to materialize after prices completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern yesterday and took out resistance at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low. Crude has now slipped back below that level, exposing horizontal pivot support at 90.49 once again. Still, the Bullish Engulfing remains valid absent a daily close beneath its low at 90.90, leaving the door open for a rebound. A break back through 92.51 targets the February 2 low at 95.41.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_After_Breaking_Out_of_Seven-Month_Congestion_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Pull Back After Breaking Out of Seven-Month Congestion

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices recoiled from resistance marked by the 1600/oz figure as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1599.17, taking out support at 1582.10 marked by the 38.2% level and exposing the next downside objective at 1560.98. A break below this boundary exposes the 1522.50-1532.45 area. The 1582.10 level is once again acting as resistance.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_After_Breaking_Out_of_Seven-Month_Congestion_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Pull Back After Breaking Out of Seven-Month Congestion

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices soared through resistance in the 10134-41 area marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion and the October 2011 swing high, exposing the 100% level at 10241 as the next upside objective. The move marks a major tone shift from the congestion defining prices for nearly six months. However, early signs of negative RSI divergence warn that a pullback may materialize before the rally continues. The 10134-41 region is now recast as near-term support.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_After_Breaking_Out_of_Seven-Month_Congestion_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Pull Back After Breaking Out of Seven-Month Congestion

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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