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US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

2012-05-21 03:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns that the greenback may correct lower before resuming the sharp advance beginning in late April.

S&P 500 – Prices are finding intraday support above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 1286.60, with a bounce from here seeing initial resistance at 1313.00 marked by the 50% boundary. Alternatively, a break lower exposes the 76.4% level at 1253.90.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL As with the S&P 500, prices are staging an intraday recovery from support at 90.49 to challenge resistance at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low. A break above this boundary exposes the February 2 low at 95.41. Alternatively, a break of support targets 88.55.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD As we suspected last week, prices recovered after putting in a Spinning Top candlestick above support in the 1532.45-1522.50 area, marked by the September 26 and December 29 spike lows. The 1600/oz figure is now in play, with resistance there reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1599.17. A break above these boundaries exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1616.23. Near-term support is marked by the 38.2% retracement at 1582.10.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are showing Spinning Top and Inverted Hammer candlesticks below resistance at 10141, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, a level reinforced by a seven-month high and 2011 peak at 10134. The setup warns of fading bullish conviction and hints a pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 10078, the 61.8% expansion. Alternatively, another push higher above 10141 exposes the 100% expansion level at 10241.

US_Dollar_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Pullback_Before_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Pullback Before Rally Resumes

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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