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S&P 500 Gains Seen as Corrective, Positioning Hints at Renewed Selling

S&P 500 Gains Seen as Corrective, Positioning Hints at Renewed Selling

2012-04-25 04:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: Yesterday’s S&P 500 rebound appears corrective, with overall technical positioning arguing for renewed downward pressure to emerge in the days ahead.

S&P 500 – As we suspected, prices rebounded after putting gin a Hammer candlestick above support in the 1357.40-1364.10 area to retest a rising trend line support set from the April 10. The move appears corrective for now, with the completion of a continuation Triangle yesterday arguing for a broadly bearish bias. A measured downside target stands at 1322.70. Trend line resistance is now at 1381.40, with a break higher exposing 1392.10.

SP_500_Gains_Seen_as_Corrective_Positioning_Hints_at_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Gains Seen as Corrective, Positioning Hints at Renewed Selling

8hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices remain wedged between resistance at 104.90 and a rising trend line support set from mid-December, with a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. A break above 104.90 exposes falling trend line resistance at 106.25. Support is now at 101.78.

SP_500_Gains_Seen_as_Corrective_Positioning_Hints_at_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Gains Seen as Corrective, Positioning Hints at Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are testing support at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from early March. A break lower exposes the 38.2% level at 1612.02. Falling channel top resistance is now at 1664.19.

SP_500_Gains_Seen_as_Corrective_Positioning_Hints_at_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Gains Seen as Corrective, Positioning Hints at Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing the intersection of a rising trend line set from early February and the bottom of a Triangle chart formation carved out over the past two months, a formation typically indicative of trend continuation (a bullish signal in this case). A Harami candlestick pattern lends cautious reinforcement to the possibility of a bounce. Near-term resistance lines up at 9935, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, but the key level to overcome is the 10,000 figure (a psychological barrier bolstered by the Triangle top and the 23.6% Fib). Alternatively, a break downward initially exposes 9885, the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

SP_500_Gains_Seen_as_Corrective_Positioning_Hints_at_Renewed_Selling_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Gains Seen as Corrective, Positioning Hints at Renewed Selling

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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