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S&P 500 May Bounce But Overall Chart Setup Calls for Deeper Losses

S&P 500 May Bounce But Overall Chart Setup Calls for Deeper Losses

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 may have scope for a corrective bounce but overall positioning argues for renewed selling to bring prices to the lowest since early February.

S&P 500 – Prices cleared rising trend line support set from the April 10 low after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick below support-turned-resistance at 1392.10, completing a Triangle chart pattern and arguing for bearish continuation. Initial support lines up in the 1357.40-1364.10 area, with a Hammer candle at this barrier hinting a bounce may materialize before renewed selling. Trend line resistance is now at 1375.00. Broadly speaking, the Triangle setup implies a measured downside target at 1322.70.

SP_500_May_Bounce_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Calls_for_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 May Bounce But Overall Chart Setup Calls for Deeper Losses

8hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices remain wedged between resistance at 104.90 and a rising trend line support set from mid-December, with a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. A break above 104.90 exposes falling trend line barriers at 105.04 and 106.32. Support is now at 101.68.

SP_500_May_Bounce_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Calls_for_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 May Bounce But Overall Chart Setup Calls for Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices are testing below support at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from early March. A break lower exposes the 38.2% level at 1612.02. Trend line resistance is now at 1664.19.

SP_500_May_Bounce_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Calls_for_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 May Bounce But Overall Chart Setup Calls for Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing the intersection of a rising trend line set from early February and the bottom of a Triangle chart formation carved out over the past two months, a formation typically indicative of trend continuation (a bullish signal in this case). A Harami candlestick pattern lends cautious reinforcement to the possibility of a bounce. Near-term resistance lines up at 10007, the Triangle top. Alternatively, a break downward initially exposes 9885, the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

SP_500_May_Bounce_But_Overall_Chart_Setup_Calls_for_Deeper_Losses_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 May Bounce But Overall Chart Setup Calls for Deeper Losses

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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