THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar edged past near-term technical support, hinting a deeper pullback back is ahead, but overall positioning continues to call for a bullish bias.
S&P 500 – Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices took out support at 1392.10, the neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top chart formation. Sellers face initial support at 1377.10, with 1392.10 recast as near-term resistance. The H&S setup implies a measured downside target at 1359.30.”
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices are reversing lower from resistance in the 102.97-103.21 marked by January top as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement to once again challenge the 61.8% level at 101.19.” A break below this boundary exposes rising trend line support set from mid-December, now at 100.04.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below support-turned-resistance at 1644.45, hinting an upswing over the past three sessions may have run its course. A reversal downward from here sees initial support at 1634.76,the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 1615.46. Alternatively, a push through resistance targets the 23.6% Fib at 1658.57.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices edged back through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9997, with sellers now setting their sights on the 38.2% level at 9935. This barrier is reinforced by rising trend line support set from early February. For the time being, weakness appears corrective absent a daily close below 9893-96 that would invalidate the Bullish Engulfing candle pattern set completed on March 27.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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