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S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has taken a step backward while the S&P 500 appears to have confirmed a near-term top, paving the way for weakness in the days ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices took out support at 1392.10, the neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top chart formation. Sellers face initial support at 1377.10, with 1392.10 recast as near-term resistance. The H&S setup implies a measured downside target at 1359.30.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are reversing lower from resistance in the 102.97-103.21 marked by January top as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement to once again challenge the 61.8% level at 101.19. A break below this boundary exposes the rising trend line support set from mid-December, now at 99.97.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke back above the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion level at 1634.76 to retest support-turned-resistance at 1644.45. A break above this boundary exposes the 23.6% Fib at 1658.57. The 38.2% expansion has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below it clearing the way for another test of the 50% level at 1615.46.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices pulled back to retest resistance-turned-support at 9996, the 50% Fibonacci expansion level. A break below this boundary exposes the 38.2% Fib at 9919. Near-term resistance remains in the 10072-10081 area, marked by the 61.8% expansion and the October 4 closing high.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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