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Dollar Sets Sights on 2011 Top as S&P 500 Carves Out Topping Pattern

Dollar Sets Sights on 2011 Top as S&P 500 Carves Out Topping Pattern

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is aiming to challenge resistance that has capped prices since early 2011 while the S&P 500 is tracing out a bearish reversal chart formation.

S&P 500 – Prices appear to be carving out a Head and Shoulders top chart formation. Confirmation is required on a daily close below neckline support at 1392.10, which would expose a measured downside objective at 1359.30. Near-term resistance lines up at 1402.90, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion level.

Dollar_Sets_Sights_on_2011_Top_as_SP_500_Carves_Out_Topping_Pattern_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Sets Sights on 2011 Top as S&P 500 Carves Out Topping Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices broke falling channel support set from late February and cleared support in the 102.97-103.21 area to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 101.19. A break below this level exposes rising trend line support set from the December 16 low, now at 99.77. The 102.97-103.21 region has been recast as near-term resistance.

Dollar_Sets_Sights_on_2011_Top_as_SP_500_Carves_Out_Topping_Pattern_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Sets Sights on 2011 Top as S&P 500 Carves Out Topping Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices took out 38.2% Fibonacci expansion support at 1634.76 to challenge the 50% level at 1615.46. A break below this boundary targets the 61.8% Fib at 1596.16. The 1634.76 level is now acting as near-term resistance.

Dollar_Sets_Sights_on_2011_Top_as_SP_500_Carves_Out_Topping_Pattern_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Sets Sights on 2011 Top as S&P 500 Carves Out Topping Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices took out resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9997, with the bulls now aiming to challenge the 10081-10134 area that has capped the greenback since mid-January 2011. The 9997 level has been recast near-term support.

Dollar_Sets_Sights_on_2011_Top_as_SP_500_Carves_Out_Topping_Pattern_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Sets Sights on 2011 Top as S&P 500 Carves Out Topping Pattern

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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