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US Dollar Breakout Validates Bullish Positioning, Aims for 2011 High

US Dollar Breakout Validates Bullish Positioning, Aims for 2011 High

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar validated a bullish chart setup carved out over the past week, with prices gaining momentum to challenge the 2011 yearly high.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing through 38.2% Fibonacci expansion support at 1409.60, with a break below that initially exposing the 50% Fib at 1405.80. For now, near-term resistance remains at 1414.50 marked by the 23.6% expansion but a close below 1409.60 would revise it down to that level.

US_Dollar_Breakout_Validates_Bullish_Positioning_Aims_for_2011_High_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Breakout Validates Bullish Positioning, Aims for 2011 High

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices recoiled from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 105.28 and are now testing below near-term support at 104.04 marked by the 23.6% level. A break below this juncture exposes falling channel support set from late February, now at 102.66.

US_Dollar_Breakout_Validates_Bullish_Positioning_Aims_for_2011_High_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Breakout Validates Bullish Positioning, Aims for 2011 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices reversed lower through support at 1658.51, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion level, with sellers now aiming to retest the 38.2% Fib at 1634.76 anew. A break below this barrier targets the 50% Fib at 1615.46. The 1658.51 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Breakout_Validates_Bullish_Positioning_Aims_for_2011_High_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Breakout Validates Bullish Positioning, Aims for 2011 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices took out falling trend line resistance set from mid-March to meet 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9997. A confirmed break on a daily close above this boundary exposes recent medium-term range highs in the 10081-10134 area. Near-term support remains at 9935 for now but would be adjusted higher to 9997 on a break above that level.

US_Dollar_Breakout_Validates_Bullish_Positioning_Aims_for_2011_High_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Breakout Validates Bullish Positioning, Aims for 2011 High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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