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US Dollar Challenges Near-Term Down Trend as S&P 500 Inches Lower

US Dollar Challenges Near-Term Down Trend as S&P 500 Inches Lower

2012-03-29 05:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is challenging the confines of the downward trajectory established from mid-March while the S&P 500 is inching lower toward key support.

S&P 500 – Prices followed a bearish Harami candlestick pattern identified yesterday with a break of support at 1408.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion level. Sellers now target support at the bottom of a Rising Wedge chart formation carved out since late November, currently at 1387.70, a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% expansion at 1383.00. The daily close below the latter level is needed to confirm a more meaningful bearish reversal.

US_Dollar_Challenges_Near-Term_Down_Trend_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Challenges Near-Term Down Trend as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices appear to be carving out a descending Triangle chart pattern. The setup generally argues in favor of a turn lower but confirmation is needed on a clear break of support at 104.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Near-term falling trend line resistance lines up at 107.87.

US_Dollar_Challenges_Near-Term_Down_Trend_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Challenges Near-Term Down Trend as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices reversed back the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1666.29 after finding resistance at the 38.2% level (1690.04). Sellers now target the 38.2% Fib expansion level at 1634.81, with a break below that exposing the 50% boundary at 1615.48. The 1666.29 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Challenges_Near-Term_Down_Trend_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Challenges Near-Term Down Trend as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices advanced after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 9885, the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and two trend lines, a falling one set from mid-December that previously acted as resistance and a more recent rising one established from the February 8 low. A break above initial resistance at 9997, the 23.6% Fib, is needed as confirmation to overturn the series of lower highs since mid-March.

US_Dollar_Challenges_Near-Term_Down_Trend_as_SP_500_Inches_Lower_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Challenges Near-Term Down Trend as S&P 500 Inches Lower

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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