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US Dollar Manages to Rise Despite Aggressive S&P 500 Rally

US Dollar Manages to Rise Despite Aggressive S&P 500 Rally

2012-03-14 04:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar managed to rise despite a sharp rally in the S&P 500 that would typically trigger selling pressure for the safe-haven currency.

S&P 500 – Prices appear to be carving out bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern (albeit a bit of an awkward-looking one). Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a brewing downward reversal. Initial support lines up at 1377.10. A break below this boundary initially exposes 1358.90, a level currently in close alignment with the Wedge bottom. Near-term resistance stands at the 1400 figure, a psychological barrier reinforced by the Wedge top.

US_Dollar_Manages_to_Rise_Despite_Aggressive_SP_500_Rally_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Manages to Rise Despite Aggressive S&P 500 Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern continues to argue for near-term losses, with a break below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 106.50 exposing the 38.2% barrier at 104.38. Prices are carving out a downward-sloping chart pattern that can turn out to be a bullish continuation Flag or a bearish falling Channel, depending on follow-through from here. Near-term resistance lines up at 107.67.

US_Dollar_Manages_to_Rise_Despite_Aggressive_SP_500_Rally_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Manages to Rise Despite Aggressive S&P 500 Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices followed a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1719.76 identified yesterday with a drop through initial support at 1686.57, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers are now challenging the 38.2% Fib at 1667.71, with a break below that aiming for the 50% expansion at 1652.68. The 23.6% level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Manages_to_Rise_Despite_Aggressive_SP_500_Rally_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Manages to Rise Despite Aggressive S&P 500 Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices narrowly took out resistance at 9995, the 50% Fibonacci expansion level, overturning the Shooting Star candle identified yesterday. The bulls now target an intermediate barrier at 10026 before making a run to the 61.8% expansion at 10071. The 9995 level has been recast as near-term support.

US_Dollar_Manages_to_Rise_Despite_Aggressive_SP_500_Rally_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Manages to Rise Despite Aggressive S&P 500 Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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