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S&P 500 Aiming Lower But Dollar Positioning Casts Doubt on Outlook

S&P 500 Aiming Lower But Dollar Positioning Casts Doubt on Outlook

2012-03-13 02:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: S&P 500 technical positioning hints a move lower is ahead but a bearish candle on the safe-haven US Dollar chart casts doubt on expectations of risk aversion.

S&P 500 – Prices produced a Dragonfly Doji candlestick below resistance at 1376.10, the confluence of the 2011 yearly high and the underside of a rising channel set from late December, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1358.60, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1337.10. Alternatively, a push through resistance targets the 1400 figure.

SP_500_Aiming_Lower_But_Dollar_Positioning_Casts_Doubt_on_Outlook_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Aiming Lower But Dollar Positioning Casts Doubt on Outlook

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern following a retest of support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from the February 2 low and broke below 106.50, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Sellers now target the 38.2% Fib at 104.38. Trend line resistance is at 109.33.

SP_500_Aiming_Lower_But_Dollar_Positioning_Casts_Doubt_on_Outlook_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Aiming Lower But Dollar Positioning Casts Doubt on Outlook

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1719.76, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1686.57, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion level, and is reinforced by a horizontal pivot at 1677.05. Alternatively, a push higher through near-term resistance exposes the December 2 high at 1763.00.

SP_500_Aiming_Lower_But_Dollar_Positioning_Casts_Doubt_on_Outlook_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Aiming Lower But Dollar Positioning Casts Doubt on Outlook

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick pattern below key resistance at 9991, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement reinforced by the top of a rising channel set from early February. A pullback from here sees initial support at 9930, the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, continued gains target 10026.

SP_500_Aiming_Lower_But_Dollar_Positioning_Casts_Doubt_on_Outlook_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Aiming Lower But Dollar Positioning Casts Doubt on Outlook

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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