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S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Renewed Selling, US Dollar May Pull Back

S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Renewed Selling, US Dollar May Pull Back

2012-03-12 04:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: Recent S&P 500 gains appear corrective, with renewed selling expected ahead. The US Dollar may pull back as prices test major resistance.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting resistance at 1376.10, the confluence of the 2011 yearly high and the underside of a rising channel set from late December. The move higher over the preceding three sessions appears corrective for now, with the overall tone of positioning favoring a bearish bias. Initial support lines up at 1358.60, with a break lower exposing 1337.10. Alternatively, a push through resistance targets the 1400 figure.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Renewed_Selling_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Renewed Selling, US Dollar May Pull Back

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices bounced from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 104.38 to retest support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from the February 2 low. The move appears corrective for now, with overall positioning still calling for a broadly bearish bias. Trend line resistance is now at 108.83, with a break higher targeting the February 24 high at 109.93. Near-term support stands at 106.50, the 23.6% Fib, with a daily close below that exposing 104.38 anew.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Renewed_Selling_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Renewed Selling, US Dollar May Pull Back

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices recovered from support in the 1662.10-167.05 region to challenge former support at 1719.76. A break above this boundary exposes the December 2 high at 1763.00. Alternatively, renewed selling that overtakes immediate support initially exposes 1641.62, the December 21 wick high.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Renewed_Selling_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Renewed Selling, US Dollar May Pull Back

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices overturned a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern identified last week to break falling trend line resistance asset from mid-December. Bulls are now testing the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 9991, a barrier reinforced by rising channel resistance. A pullback from here sees initial support at 9930, the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, continued gains target 10026.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Favors_Renewed_Selling_US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Favors Renewed Selling, US Dollar May Pull Back

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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