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S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective, US Dollar Digesting Gains

S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective, US Dollar Digesting Gains

2012-03-08 03:47:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: S&P 500 technical positioning remains broadly bearish after yesterday’s corrective bounce, with renewed selling that boosts the US Dollar expected ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices found interim support above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1337.30 and recovered to retest 1358.60, the May 2011 swing high. The move is likely corrective in the scope of a larger downward reversal triggered with yesterday’s bearish breakout. Renewed selling through 1337.30 exposes the 38.2% Fib as the next layer of support. Alternatively, a deeper correction higher above immediate resistance targets 1376.10.

SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_US_Dollar_Digesting_Gains_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective, US Dollar Digesting Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices corrected higher from support at 104.38, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but overall positioning continues to appear bearish. The return of selling momentum that takes prices through immediate support exposes the 50% Fib at 102.67. Alternatively, a deeper pull-up through the 23.6% level targets the underside of a formerly broken rising trend line now at 107.81.

SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_US_Dollar_Digesting_Gains_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective, US Dollar Digesting Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD A shallow corrective pull-up left intact resistance at 1687.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Renewed selling aims to challenge the 50% Fib at 1656.38. Alternatively a confirmed break higher opens the door for an upside test of the 23.6% level at 1727.06.

SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_US_Dollar_Digesting_Gains_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective, US Dollar Digesting Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are stalling at resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 9928 having broken above a falling trend line set from mid-December. Renewed upside momentum targets the 50% expansion at 10003. The trend line, now at 9900, has been recast as interim support.

SP_500_Rebound_Seen_as_Corrective_US_Dollar_Digesting_Gains_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Rebound Seen as Corrective, US Dollar Digesting Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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