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S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

2012-03-06 06:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 and US Dollar are flirting trend-defining technical levels, with the path of least resistance favoring losses for shares and gains for the greenback.

S&P 500 – Unchanged from yesterday: “Positioning remains indecisive as prices test the 1358.60-1376.10 area, with a narrow bullish breakout late last week again falling short on follow-through. Negative RSI divergence still points to fading upward momentum, warning of a reversal lower. A break below 1358.60 initially exposes 1337.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a sustained push higher targets the 1400 figure.”

SP_500_US_Dollar_Flirt_With_Trend-Defining_Technical_Levels_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices are testing key support at 105.82, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level reinforced by a rising trend line set from the February 2 swing bottom, after putting in a bearish Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below 105.82 initially targets the 38.2% Fib at 103.28.”

SP_500_US_Dollar_Flirt_With_Trend-Defining_Technical_Levels_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices remain locked between 1687.97 and 1727.06, the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. A daily close above resistance exposes the December 2 high at 1763.00 anew. Alternatively, a push through immediate support exposes the 50% level at 1656.38.”

SP_500_US_Dollar_Flirt_With_Trend-Defining_Technical_Levels_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Unchanged from yesterday: “As we suspected last week, prices moved higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Resistance now looms at 9896, the February 22 swing high, but the larger boundary to watch is the falling trend line defining the down trend since mid-December. A daily close above that goes a long way toward confirming a lasting bullish reversal. Near-term support lines up at 9835, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion.”

SP_500_US_Dollar_Flirt_With_Trend-Defining_Technical_Levels_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500, US Dollar Flirt With Trend-Defining Technical Levels

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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