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S&P 500 Struggles to Find Direction, Dollar Edging to Key Resistance

S&P 500 Struggles to Find Direction, Dollar Edging to Key Resistance

2012-03-05 05:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 is struggling to find directional near 2011 highs while the US Dollar is on pace to challenge the boundaries of its near-term down trend.

S&P 500 – Positioning remains indecisive as prices test the 1358.60-1376.10 area, with a narrow bullish breakout late last week again falling short on follow-through. Negative RSI divergence still points to fading upward momentum, warning of a reversal lower. A break below 1358.60 initially exposes 1337.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, a sustained push higher targets the 1400 figure.

SP_500_Struggles_to_Find_Direction_Dollar_Edging_to_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Struggles to Find Direction, Dollar Edging to Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing key support at 105.82, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level reinforced by a rising trend line set from the February 2 swing bottom, after putting in a bearish Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below 105.82 initially targets the 38.2% Fib at 103.28.

SP_500_Struggles_to_Find_Direction_Dollar_Edging_to_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Struggles to Find Direction, Dollar Edging to Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices remain locked between 1687.97 and 1727.06, the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. A daily close above resistance exposes the December 2 high at 1763.00 anew. Alternatively, a push through immediate support exposes the 50% level at 1656.38.

SP_500_Struggles_to_Find_Direction_Dollar_Edging_to_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Struggles to Find Direction, Dollar Edging to Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR As we suspected last week, prices moved higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Resistance now looms at 9896, the February 22 swing high, but the larger boundary to watch is the falling trend line defining the down trend since mid-December. A daily close above this boundary would go a long toward confirming a lasting bullish reversal. Near-term support lines up at 9835, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion.

SP_500_Struggles_to_Find_Direction_Dollar_Edging_to_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Struggles to Find Direction, Dollar Edging to Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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