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S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Up Trend, US Dollar Reverses Higher

S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Up Trend, US Dollar Reverses Higher

2012-03-01 03:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 reversed sharply lower to break support that had held up prices since late December while the US Dollar rose the most in two weeks.

S&P 500 – Prices took out support at the bottom of a rising channel set from early December, completing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break below 1358.60 is needed to confirm a larger downward reversal, exposing the next layer of support at 1337.30. The channel bottom, now at 1369.10, has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Breaks_2-Month_Up_Trend_US_Dollar_Reverses_Higher_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Up Trend, US Dollar Reverses Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are stalling at support marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 106.70. A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern hints the path of least resistance favors the downside. A break lower initially exposes the 38.2% retracement of the 2/2-2/24 up leg at 104.38, followed by the 38.2% extension at 103.34. Near-term resistance is at 110.04, the 61.8% Fib expansion.

SP_500_Breaks_2-Month_Up_Trend_US_Dollar_Reverses_Higher_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Up Trend, US Dollar Reverses Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices reversed sharply lower, dropping to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support at 1687.97. A break below this boundary exposes the 50% level at 1656.38. Near-term resistance lines up at 1727.06, the 23.6% Fib, with a daily close above that targeting the December 2 high at 1763.00.

SP_500_Breaks_2-Month_Up_Trend_US_Dollar_Reverses_Higher_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Up Trend, US Dollar Reverses Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 9770, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 9831, the 38.2% Fib, with a break above that targeting the 50% boundary at 9881. Alternatively, a reversal back through immediate support exposes the 14.6% level at 9733.

SP_500_Breaks_2-Month_Up_Trend_US_Dollar_Reverses_Higher_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Breaks 2-Month Up Trend, US Dollar Reverses Higher

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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