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S&P 500 Bearish Signal Neutralized, US Dollar Breaks Support

S&P 500 Bearish Signal Neutralized, US Dollar Breaks Support

2012-02-29 03:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 has neutralized a bearish chart setup below resistance at the 2011 peak while the US Dollar broke through support, hinting deeper losses are ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices neutralized the bearish Three Inside Down candlestick pattern completed on February 22. Resistance at 1376.10, the May 2011 top, remains intact however and negative RSI divergence continues to warn of frail bullish momentum. Initial rising channel support lines up at 1366.30, with a break below that exposing 1358.60. Alternatively, a daily close above 1376.10 exposes the 1400 figure and 1425.20.

SP_500_Bearish_Signal_Neutralized_US_Dollar_Breaks_Support_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Bearish Signal Neutralized, US Dollar Breaks Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices followed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 110.04, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension, with a break below initial support at 106.70 (the 50% Fib extension). Sellers now target the 38.2% retracement of the 2/2-2/24 up leg at 104.38, followed by the 38.2% extension at 103.34. The 106.70 has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Bearish_Signal_Neutralized_US_Dollar_Breaks_Support_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Bearish Signal Neutralized, US Dollar Breaks Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices rebounded from 1763.00, the confluence of former resistance at the December 2 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci extension, apparently neutralizing a bearish Three Outside Down candlestick pattern completed yesterday. The bulls now look to challenge the 1800/oz figure, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% extension level.A daily close above this level targets the 50% extension at 1824.91. Importantly, negative RSI divergence continues to warn that of fading upward momentum.

SP_500_Bearish_Signal_Neutralized_US_Dollar_Breaks_Support_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Bearish Signal Neutralized, US Dollar Breaks Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices took out support at 9786, a level reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion barrier. The bears now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fib at 9737, with a break below that exposing 9679. The 9786 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Bearish_Signal_Neutralized_US_Dollar_Breaks_Support_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Bearish Signal Neutralized, US Dollar Breaks Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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