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S&P 500 Looks for Direction Near 2011 High, US Dollar Treading Water

S&P 500 Looks for Direction Near 2011 High, US Dollar Treading Water

2012-02-21 02:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 remains perched near the 2011 yearly high waiting for clear directional cues while the US Dollar is treading water below Fibonacci resistance.

S&P 500 – Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices overcame resistance at 1358.60, the July 2011 high, and now aim for the May 2011 top at 1376.10. Negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing bullish momentum and warns a reversal may be imminent. The 1358.60 level has been recast as near-term support.”

SP_500_Looks_for_Direction_Near_2011_High_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Looks for Direction Near 2011 High, US Dollar Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing resistance at 105.61, the 123.6% Fibonacci extension, after taking out resistance at the January 4 high (103.66). Continued upward momentum above here targets 106.81, the 138.2% Fib. The 103.66 level has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Looks_for_Direction_Near_2011_High_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Looks for Direction Near 2011 High, US Dollar Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices broke through the top of a Descending Triangle set from early February, invalidating the formation’s bearish implications and exposing initial resistance levels at 1746.10 and 1763.00. Near-term support remains at 1714.05. A break below that targets 1677.05.

SP_500_Looks_for_Direction_Near_2011_High_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Looks for Direction Near 2011 High, US Dollar Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices remain wedged between resistance at 9863, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and the 23.6% Fib expansion at 9788. A break higher exposes the 61.8% retracement at 9908 while a push through support targets the 38.2% expansion level at 9732. Signs of negative RSI divergence hint the path of least resistance favors the downside.

SP_500_Looks_for_Direction_Near_2011_High_US_Dollar_Treading_Water_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Looks for Direction Near 2011 High, US Dollar Treading Water

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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