THE TAKEAWAY: The S&P 500 is flirting with pivotal technical resistance, with a turn lower likely to underpin the US Dollar as it works to reconcile its own formative price barriers.
S&P 500 – Prices negated a bearish Hanging Man candlestick identified yesterday but positioning is hardly conclusive as buyers test resistance in the 1351.40-1358.60 area. A reversal lower from here initially targets the bottom of a minor rising channel set from late December, now at 1321.40. Alternatively, a break higher exposes the 2011 swing high at 1376.10.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices broke back above resistance at 97.70, exposing the top of a falling channel set from early January now at 100.49. This hurdle is reinforced by a horizontal pivot barrier at 101.28. The 97.70 level has been once again recast as near-term support.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices recovered following a test of 1719.45, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level reinforced by a formerly broken channel top set from early January now acting as support. Absent a daily close above 1763.07 however, a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern warns of renewed selling ahead.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing support at 9679, a now familiar resistance-turned-support barrier, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement acting as reinforcement. A break lower exposes 9592, the 76.4% Fib. Near-term resistance lines up at 9759.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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