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S&P 500 Positioning Hints at Weakness, Offering Hope to US Dollar

S&P 500 Positioning Hints at Weakness, Offering Hope to US Dollar

2012-01-27 04:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAYS&P 500 positioning hints a near-term top may be in place, offering support to the US Dollar and allowing prices to rebound from a key support level.

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing below rising channel support, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Initial channel bottom support lines up at 1311.90, a barrier reinforced at 1307.10. A break below the latter boundary exposes 1285.90.

SP_500_Positioning_Hints_at_Weakness_Offering_Hope_to_US_Dollar_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Positioning Hints at Weakness, Offering Hope to US Dollar

8hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices continue to consolidate above support at 97.70, with the first layer of resistance still at 101.28. A break lower exposes resistance-turned-support at the top of a falling channel set from mid-November, now at 96.27. Alternatively, a push higher initially targets the mid-November high at 103.35.

SP_500_Positioning_Hints_at_Weakness_Offering_Hope_to_US_Dollar_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Positioning Hints at Weakness, Offering Hope to US Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices continued to move higher after taking out horizontal resistance at 1677.05 as well as a falling trend line established from early September, with the bulls still aiming to challenge 1750.87. Near-term support stands at the $1700/oz figure, a psychological threshold reinforced by former resistance at the top of a minor channel set from early January.

SP_500_Positioning_Hints_at_Weakness_Offering_Hope_to_US_Dollar_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Positioning Hints at Weakness, Offering Hope to US Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are testing support in the 9781-9823 region, a barrier reinforced by the bottom of a falling channel that has confined price action since mid-December. A break below this boundary exposes 9676. The first layer of significant resistance stands at the channel’s midline, now at 9887.

SP_500_Positioning_Hints_at_Weakness_Offering_Hope_to_US_Dollar_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Positioning Hints at Weakness, Offering Hope to US Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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