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S&P 500 Clears Resistance But Bullish Momentum Looks Suspect

S&P 500 Clears Resistance But Bullish Momentum Looks Suspect

2012-01-13 06:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAYThe S&P 500 took out a key resistance level at 1292.90, seemingly pointing to further gains ahead, but the strength of bullish momentum appears suspect for now.

S&P 500 – Prices edged through resistance at 1292.90, the October 27 high, but the move has not convincingly erased the possibility of a double top in the general vicinity of the 1300 figure. In fact, candle breaking resistance is a Spinning Top, which seems hardly reassuring for the bullish argument. Near-term resistance is now at 1302.60. If this level holds and a reversal commences, initial support stands at 1265.30. Alternatively, if the break higher was indeed genuine, clearing 1302.60 will expose 1350.00.

SP_500_Clears_Resistance_But_Bullish_Momentum_Looks_Suspect_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Clears Resistance But Bullish Momentum Looks Suspect

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices confirmed yesterday’s narrow break below support at 101.28, pushing aggressively lower through the $100/barrel figure toward the next downside barrier at 97.89. A break below this juncture exposes 94.58 and 92.51. The 101.28 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Clears_Resistance_But_Bullish_Momentum_Looks_Suspect_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Clears Resistance But Bullish Momentum Looks Suspect

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 1662.65, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1629.57, the 38.2% Fib, a barrier reinforced by the September 28 low at 1609.05. Alternatively, a break higher exposes the 61.8% targets the 61.8% retracement at 1695.73.

SP_500_Clears_Resistance_But_Bullish_Momentum_Looks_Suspect_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Clears Resistance But Bullish Momentum Looks Suspect

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR The greenback continues to oscillate between the midline and top of a falling channel in place since mid-December, now at 9922 and 10010 respectively. A break above this juncture exposes the 2011 closing high at 10081. Alternatively, a push downward exposes a former Head & Shoulders neckline at 9823.

SP_500_Clears_Resistance_But_Bullish_Momentum_Looks_Suspect_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Clears Resistance But Bullish Momentum Looks Suspect

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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