THE TAKEAWAY – The US Dollar may weaken near term but the S&P 500 technical setup hints a top is in the works, pointing to a broadly bullish bias for the safe-haven currency.
S&P 500 – Prices continue to tread water below resistance at 1292.90, the October 27 high, with back-to-back Doji candles pointing to indecision and hinting a bearish reversal may be ahead. Initial support stands at 1265.30, with a break below that targeting a rising trend line now at 1247.00.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices remain locked between support at 101.28 and resistance at 103.35, the November 17 high. A downward breakout clears the way for a challenge of the 100.00 figure and 97.89. Alternatively, an upswing that takes out resistance on a daily closing basis initially exposes 106.05.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices are edging lower following a test of resistance at 1629.57, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1577.41, a long-term rising trend line based from October 2008. Alternatively, a reversal higher through the 38.2% level exposes the 50% Fib at 1662.65
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are showing a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern at the top of a falling channel in place since mid-December, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 9933, the channel’s midline, with a break below that exposing the bottom at 9841. Near-term resistance is at 10020.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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