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US Dollar Poised to Challenge 2011 High as S&P 500 Topping Continues

US Dollar Poised to Challenge 2011 High as S&P 500 Topping Continues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAYUS Dollar bulls are poised to challenge the 2011 closing high as the S&P 500 signals a top is forming, promising safe-haven demand for the greenback.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to hint a double top is taking shape below 1292.90, the October 27 high, with a bearish Hanging Man candlestick followed by a pair of Dojis to reinforce the likelihood that bullish momentum is fading. Initial support stands at 1265.30, with a break below that targeting a rising trend line now at 1244.30.

US_Dollar_Poised_to_Challenge_2011_High_as_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Poised to Challenge 2011 High as S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are probing through support at 101.28, with a break below that clearing the way for a challenge of the 100.00 figure and 97.89. Near-term resistance remains at 103.35, the November 17 high. A return to bullish momentum that takes out this barrier on a daily closing basis initially exposes 106.05.

US_Dollar_Poised_to_Challenge_2011_High_as_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Poised to Challenge 2011 High as S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a bearish Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 1629.57, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1576.35, a long-term rising trend line based from October 2008. Alternatively, a reversal higher through the 38.2% level exposes the 50% Fib at 1662.65

US_Dollar_Poised_to_Challenge_2011_High_as_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Poised to Challenge 2011 High as S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices took out horizontal resistance at 9993, clearing the way for another challenge of the 2011 closing high at 10081. A break above this barrier clears the way for a challenge of 10134, with the longer-term bullish objective implied by a Head & Shoulders chart pattern carved out between October and November at 10237. The 9993 level has been recast as near-term support.

US_Dollar_Poised_to_Challenge_2011_High_as_SP_500_Topping_Continues_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Poised to Challenge 2011 High as S&P 500 Topping Continues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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