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S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, Hinting US Dollar to Rise

S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, Hinting US Dollar to Rise

2011-12-28 02:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe US Dollar may rise amid returning safe-haven demand as S&P 500 technical positioning warns that a double top may be emerging.

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Doji candlestick below resistance at 1272.60, the December 8 swing high, hinting bullish momentum is ebbing and threatening a reversal lower ahead. Initial support lines up at 1253.80, a former resistance at a falling trend line set from the October 27 high. A topside breakout targets 1292.90.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Hinting_US_Dollar_to_Rise_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, Hinting US Dollar to Rise

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices took out the top of a falling channel set from mid-November to challenge resistance at 101.80, the closing high for the second half of 2011. Continued gains from here target the November 17 session high at 103.35. The channel top, now at 99.72, has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Hinting_US_Dollar_to_Rise_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, Hinting US Dollar to Rise

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Unchanged from yesterday. Prices are drifting lower after putting in a bearish Shooting Star candlestick below support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a falling channel set from early November. The bears aim to challenge long-term support at a trend line dating back to late October 2008, now at 1567.29. Channel resistance is now at 1611.84.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Hinting_US_Dollar_to_Rise_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, Hinting US Dollar to Rise

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Unchanged from yesterday. Prices are treading water below resistance at 9982, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Support remains at 9925, the 23.6% Fib, and finds reinforcement in a rising trend line set from early November. A breakdown exposes 9823 while a push above immediate resistance targets the year-to-date closing high at 10081.

SP_500_Chart_Setup_Warns_of_Weakness_Hinting_US_Dollar_to_Rise_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Chart Setup Warns of Weakness, Hinting US Dollar to Rise

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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