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S&P 500 Rally Stalls, Hinting US Dollar Recovery May Be Ahead

S&P 500 Rally Stalls, Hinting US Dollar Recovery May Be Ahead

2011-12-22 01:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe S&P 500 is showing signs of ebbing bullish momentum below a technical resistance level, hinting at forthcoming gains for the safe-haven US Dollar.

S&P 500 – Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below resistance at a falling trend line established from late October, pointing to indecision and hinting a pullback may be ahead. Initial support is at 1238.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Trend line resistance is now at 1254.90.

SP_500_Rally_Stalls_Hinting_US_Dollar_Recovery_May_Be_Ahead_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Rally Stalls, Hinting US Dollar Recovery May Be Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices took out support-turned-resistance at 97.89, with the bulls now poised to challenge the top of a falling channel set from the November 17 high, now at 100.18. Anything shy of a daily close above this barrier keeps the overall trend bias bearish. The 97.89 level has been recast as support.

SP_500_Rally_Stalls_Hinting_US_Dollar_Recovery_May_Be_Ahead_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Rally Stalls, Hinting US Dollar Recovery May Be Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick on a retest of resistance at the underside of a previously broken falling channel established from early November. The setup hints bullish momentum is running out of steam and a pullback is ahead. Initial support is seen at 1609.05, with a break below that exposing a long-term trend line dating back to late October 2008 at 1564.92.

SP_500_Rally_Stalls_Hinting_US_Dollar_Recovery_May_Be_Ahead_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Rally Stalls, Hinting US Dollar Recovery May Be Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices put in a Long-Legged Doji candle following a test through support at 9925 – the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level – pointing to indecision and hinting an upswing may be ahead. Near-term resistance lines up at 9982, the 14.6% retracement, with a break above that exposing the year-to-date high at 100081.

SP_500_Rally_Stalls_Hinting_US_Dollar_Recovery_May_Be_Ahead_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Rally Stalls, Hinting US Dollar Recovery May Be Ahead

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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