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S&P 500 Breaks Support, Hinting US Dollar Rally to Rebuild Momentum

S&P 500 Breaks Support, Hinting US Dollar Rally to Rebuild Momentum

2011-12-20 02:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe S&P 500 broke below a technical resistance level, pointing to continued risk aversion and hinting the safe-haven US Dollar’s rally may be ready to resume.

S&P 500 – Prices took out support at 1210.80, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 61.8% level at 1196.30. A break below this latter boundary clears the way for a move to challenge the 76.4% Fib at 1178.20. The 50% retracement has been recast as near-term resistance.

SP_500_Breaks_Support_Hinting_US_Dollar_Rally_to_Rebuild_Momentum_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Breaks Support, Hinting US Dollar Rally to Rebuild Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL Prices are testing the bottom of a falling channel set from mid-November, with a Spinning Top candlestick hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 94.58, with a push above that targeting the December 9 low at 97.35. Alternatively, a break below immediate support exposes 90.49.

SP_500_Breaks_Support_Hinting_US_Dollar_Rally_to_Rebuild_Momentum_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Breaks Support, Hinting US Dollar Rally to Rebuild Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD Prices remain wedged between support-turned-resistance at 1609.05 and a major downside barrier at 1562.55, the intersection of a former resistance level dating back to early May and a rising trend line guiding the uptrend since October 2008. A break higher exposes 1680.55. Alternatively, a daily close below support would amount to a major bearish trend change.

SP_500_Breaks_Support_Hinting_US_Dollar_Rally_to_Rebuild_Momentum_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Breaks Support, Hinting US Dollar Rally to Rebuild Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR Prices are locked in consolidation below resistance at 10081, the year-to-date closing high. Initial support is found at 9982, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a push through that exposing the 23.6% level at 9925.Alternatively, a break above resistance will target the October 4 wick high at 10134.

SP_500_Breaks_Support_Hinting_US_Dollar_Rally_to_Rebuild_Momentum_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Breaks Support, Hinting US Dollar Rally to Rebuild Momentum

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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