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S&P 500 Positioning Still Favors Weakness Despite Sharp Rally

S&P 500 Positioning Still Favors Weakness Despite Sharp Rally

2011-12-01 05:20:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYS&P 500 technical positioning remains broadly bearish despite yesterday’s aggressive push higher, offering hope for recovery to the safe-haven US Dollar.

S&P 500 – Prices soared higher but conspicuously failed to break the series of lower highs defined by a rising trend line set from the October 27 high, with only a daily close above this boundary overturning the bearish tone of overall positioning for a more neutral bias. Resistance is reinforced by the 14.6% Fibonacci extension at 1251.33. Initial support lines up at 1225.71, the 23.6% Fib.

SP_500_Positioning_Still_Favors_Weakness_Despite_Sharp_Rally_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Positioning Still Favors Weakness Despite Sharp Rally

CRUDE OIL Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel set from early October, now at 102.32. A break above this boundary exposes the November 17 high at 103.35. Support lines up at 94.56.

SP_500_Positioning_Still_Favors_Weakness_Despite_Sharp_Rally_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Positioning Still Favors Weakness Despite Sharp Rally

GOLD Prices are testing resistance at 1746.08, the 14.6% Fibonacci extension, with a break higher exposing the November 8 high at 1802.77. Near-term support lines up at 1711.13, the 23.6% level, a boundary reinforced by a rising trend line underpinning price action since late September.

SP_500_Positioning_Still_Favors_Weakness_Despite_Sharp_Rally_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Positioning Still Favors Weakness Despite Sharp Rally

US DOLLAR Prices broke rising trend line support to re-test 9823, the former neckline of a Head and Shoulders bottom carved out between mid-October and mid-November. A close below this boundary would materially change the bullish implications of overall positioning toward a more neutral bias. Near-term resistance lines up at 9925, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

SP_500_Positioning_Still_Favors_Weakness_Despite_Sharp_Rally_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Positioning Still Favors Weakness Despite Sharp Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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