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S&P 500 Poised to Test 1300 Figure, US Dollar Aiming for August Lows

S&P 500 Poised to Test 1300 Figure, US Dollar Aiming for August Lows

2011-10-28 08:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe S&P 500 crashed through major resistance aiming to challenge the 1300 figure while the safe-haven US Dollar slumps toward Augusts’ swing lows.

S&P 500 – Prices punched through critical resistance at 1257.30, the former neckline of a major Head and Shoulders top chart formation carved out between January and August, a boundary reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1263.03. The bulls now aim to challenge the 1300 figure, followed by the 76.4% retracement at 1306.24. The 61.8% Fib as been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Poised_to_Test_1300_Figure_US_Dollar_Aiming_for_August_Lows_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Poised to Test 1300 Figure, US Dollar Aiming for August Lows

CRUDE OIL Prices rebounded from support at $90.17, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, but conspicuously failed to overturn the bearish Shooting Star candlestick formed on 10/25, which would have required a close above its wick high at $94.56. Resistance is reinforced by the 50% Fib at $94.87. The current setup needs either a break higher through the 50% level or a reversal lower through the 38.2% level, on a daily closing basis in both instances, to reestablish a clear directional bias. In the meantime, positioning is broadly neutral.

SP_500_Poised_to_Test_1300_Figure_US_Dollar_Aiming_for_August_Lows_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Poised to Test 1300 Figure, US Dollar Aiming for August Lows

GOLD Prices took out resistance at $1726.60, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with the bulls now aiming to challenge the 61.8% level at $1772.42. The 50% Fib has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Poised_to_Test_1300_Figure_US_Dollar_Aiming_for_August_Lows_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Poised to Test 1300 Figure, US Dollar Aiming for August Lows

US DOLLAR Prices tumbled through support at a falling trend line connecting major highs since late May as well as an upward-sloping boundary set from the late July bottom. Sellers now target the 9331-9395 region. Near-term resistance is loosely defined at the 9500 figure.

SP_500_Poised_to_Test_1300_Figure_US_Dollar_Aiming_for_August_Lows_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Poised to Test 1300 Figure, US Dollar Aiming for August Lows

8hour Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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