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US Dollar May Face Deeper Losses Before Rebound as S&P 500 Gains

US Dollar May Face Deeper Losses Before Rebound as S&P 500 Gains

2011-10-24 05:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe US Dollar may face another push lower before a reversal materializes while the S&P 500 edges higher having taken out resistance at a key range top.

S&P 500 – Prices took out resistance at 1230.90, the top of the range that confined them since mid-August. The bulls will now aim to challenge support-turned-resistance at the former neckline of a major Head and Shoulders top chart formation carved out between January and August at 1257.30. The 1230.90 level as been recast as near-term support.

US_Dollar_May_Face_Deeper_Losses_Before_Rebound_as_SP_500_Gains_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Face Deeper Losses Before Rebound as S&P 500 Gains

CRUDE OIL Prices bounced but failed to overturn the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at $90.10 identified last week. The overall setup continues to hint the path of least resistance leads downward, with initial support marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at $84.61.

US_Dollar_May_Face_Deeper_Losses_Before_Rebound_as_SP_500_Gains_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Face Deeper Losses Before Rebound as S&P 500 Gains

GOLD Prices continue to consolidate in the $1600-1700 range that has persisted since late September. A bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern at support hints an upswing is ahead, exposing initial resistance at $1660.55 followed by another challenge of the $1700 figure.

US_Dollar_May_Face_Deeper_Losses_Before_Rebound_as_SP_500_Gains_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Face Deeper Losses Before Rebound as S&P 500 Gains

US DOLLAR Prices took out 38.2% Fibonacci extension support at 9645 to expose the 50% level at 9594. This boundary is reinforced by resistance-turned-support at a falling trend line established from the October 4 high. Early signs of positive RSI divergence hint sellers are losing momentum and a reversal may be in the works ahead. The 38.2% Fib has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_May_Face_Deeper_Losses_Before_Rebound_as_SP_500_Gains_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Face Deeper Losses Before Rebound as S&P 500 Gains

4hour Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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