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US Dollar Positioned to Rise as S&P 500 Stalls at Range Resistance

US Dollar Positioned to Rise as S&P 500 Stalls at Range Resistance

2011-10-20 06:40:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYUS Dollar technical positioning points to gains ahead as the S&P 500 stalls below resistance at a key range top. Crude oil and gold are likewise likely to decline.

S&P 500 – Prices continue to stall above support at 1197.29, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level, with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern identified on Monday still suggesting that the path of least resistance favors the downside. A break below initial support exposes the 38.2% level at 1173.71. Near term resistance is in the 1230.90 – 1257.30 region.

US_Dollar_Positioned_to_Rise_as_SP_500_Stalls_at_Range_Resistance_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Positioned to Rise as S&P 500 Stalls at Range Resistance

CRUDE OIL Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 90.10, arguing for a downward reversal from here. Initial support stands at 84.61, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level. A break below that exposes the 38.2% Fib at 80.97.

US_Dollar_Positioned_to_Rise_as_SP_500_Stalls_at_Range_Resistance_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Positioned to Rise as S&P 500 Stalls at Range Resistance

GOLD Prices are testing through support at the bottom of a rising channel carved out since late September, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 1603.16. Initial resistance is at 1638.11, the 14.6% level, as well as the October 19 session close at 1659.90.

US_Dollar_Positioned_to_Rise_as_SP_500_Stalls_at_Range_Resistance_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Positioned to Rise as S&P 500 Stalls at Range Resistance

US DOLLAR Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern following a re-test of falling trend line resistance-turned-support established from the October 4 swing high. Prices are now testing above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9761, with a break above exposing the 23.6% barrier at 9800.

US_Dollar_Positioned_to_Rise_as_SP_500_Stalls_at_Range_Resistance_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Positioned to Rise as S&P 500 Stalls at Range Resistance

4hr Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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