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US Dollar May Find Lifeline as S&P 500 Hits Range Top Resistance

US Dollar May Find Lifeline as S&P 500 Hits Range Top Resistance

2011-10-13 04:17:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe safe-haven US Dollar may reverse higher as the S&P 500 runs into critical resistance at the top of a range that has confined price action since early August.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance at 1221.80, the top of the consolidation range in place since early August. A reversal lower from here would form a Triple Top and expose initial 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 1185.98. Alternatively, a break higher targets support-turned-resistance at the former neckline of a Head and Shoulders chart formation carved out between January and August at 1257.30. Most importantly, such an outcome would also break the series of lower tops in place since August 31, invalidating the near-term bearish bias for a more neutral tone.

US_Dollar_May_Find_Lifeline_as_SP_500_Hits_Range_Top_Resistance_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Find Lifeline as S&P 500 Hits Range Top Resistance

CRUDE OIL Positioning is little changed from yesterday, with prices continuing to stall below resistance at the top of a falling channel set from early May after showing a bearish Spinning Top candlestick. On balance, the setup points to ebbing conviction behind bullish momentum and hints a reversal downward may be ahead. Initial support lines up at $83.65, with a break below that exposing $79.58.

US_Dollar_May_Find_Lifeline_as_SP_500_Hits_Range_Top_Resistance_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Find Lifeline as S&P 500 Hits Range Top Resistance

GOLD Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices remain locked in a choppy range between the 14.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements at 1589.14 and 1680.78 respectively. A break below immediate support exposes the September 26 low at 1532.45. Alternatively, a push higher through the range top exposes the 50% Fib at 1726.60.”

US_Dollar_May_Find_Lifeline_as_SP_500_Hits_Range_Top_Resistance_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Find Lifeline as S&P 500 Hits Range Top Resistance

US DOLLAR Prices dropped to support at 9765, the 50%Fibonacci retracement. Continued selling from here targets 9677, the 61.8% Fib. The 38.2% level at 9852 has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_May_Find_Lifeline_as_SP_500_Hits_Range_Top_Resistance_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Find Lifeline as S&P 500 Hits Range Top Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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