US Dollar, S&P 500 at Trend-Defining Technical Levels Before NFP
THE TAKEAWAY – Financial market sentiment is at a key inflection point with the US Dollar and the S&P 500 straddling trend-defining barriers ahead of the closely-watched US jobs report.
S&P 500 – Prices broke above resistance at 1124.81the 38.2%Fibonacci extension, forming a bullish Three Inside Up candlestick pattern in the process. Buyers now challenge key resistance at 1165.39, a juncture marked by the intersection of the 23.6% Fib and a falling channel top, with a break higher exposing the 1200.00 figure as well as the familiar 1227.40-1257.30 region. The 38.2% Fib has been recast as near-term support.
CRUDE OIL – The setup is similar to the S&P 500, with prices completing a bullish Three Inside Up candlestick pattern and taking out resistance at 80.97, the intersection of the 38.2%Fibonacci extension and a falling channel top. The bulls now aim to test the 23.6% Fib at 84.61, with the 38.2% level recast as support.
GOLD – Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices remain wedged locked in a range between the 14.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements at 1589.14 and 1680.78 respectively. A break below immediate support exposes the September 26 low at 1532.45. Alternatively, a push higher through the range top exposes the 50% Fib at 1726.60.”
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing support at 9979, the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci extension and the bottom of a rising channel set from late August, having completed a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at the 50% level (10139). Negative RSI divergence warns that a deeper correction may be ahead, with a daily close below 9979 exposing 9831. The 38.2% extension at 10067 marks near-term resistance.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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