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US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Warns of Setbacks

US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Warns of Setbacks

2011-10-06 13:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe US Dollar is bouncing from key technical support as risky assets run into resistance but positioning still warns of setbacks emerging over the near term.

S&P 500 – Prices broke above resistance at 1124.81the 38.2%Fibonacci extension, with the bulls now poised to challenge key resistance at 1165.39 marked by the intersection of the 23.6% level and a falling channel top. The 38.2% Fib has been recast as near-term support.

US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Warns_of_Setbacks_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Warns of Setbacks

CRUDE OIL Prices completed a bullish Three Inside Up candlestick pattern and rose to challenge resistance at 80.97, the intersection of the 38.2%Fibonacci extension and a falling channel top. A break higher exposes the 23.6% Fib at 84.61. Support stands at 78.03, the 50% extension level.

US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Warns_of_Setbacks_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Warns of Setbacks

GOLD Prices remain wedged locked in a range between the 14.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements at 1589.14 and 1680.78 respectively. A break below immediate support exposes the September 26 low at 1532.45. Alternatively, a push higher through the range top exposes the 50% Fib at 1726.60.

US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Warns_of_Setbacks_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Warns of Setbacks

US DOLLAR Prices are reversing higher from support at 9979, the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci extension and the bottom of a rising channel set from late August. Initial resistance lines up at 10068, the 38.2% Fib, with a break above that exposes the 50% level at 10139 once more. Still, negative RSI divergence warns that bullish momentum is vulnerable, with a break below current support targeting 9831.

US_Dollar_Bounces_But_Chart_Setup_Still_Warns_of_Setbacks_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Bounces But Chart Setup Still Warns of Setbacks

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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