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US Dollar Pullback Threatened as Prices Approach Key Resistance

US Dollar Pullback Threatened as Prices Approach Key Resistance

2011-10-04 11:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

THE TAKEAWAYThe US Dollar is showing signs of ebbing upward momentum as prices approach a major hurdle at the confluence of two important technical resistance levels.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing below 50% Fibonacci extension support at 1091.65, with a break below the level on a daily closing basis exposing the next layer of support at the 61.8% level (1058.79). For the time being, the 38.2% Fib at 1124.51 stands as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_Pullback_Threatened_as_Prices_Approach_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Pullback Threatened as Prices Approach Key Resistance

CRUDE OIL Sellers continue to push prices lower, with the WTI contract now approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at $75.09. A break below this boundary exposes the 76.4% Fib at $71.45. Near-term resistance lines up at $78.03, the 50% level.

US_Dollar_Pullback_Threatened_as_Prices_Approach_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Pullback Threatened as Prices Approach Key Resistance

GOLD Prices found support just below the $1600/oz figure at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level ($1582.52) and bounced higher, edging above the 61.8% level at $1647.16. The bulls now aim for the 50% Fib at 1699.40, with the 61.8% retracement recast as support. Importantly, the gains are seen as corrective within the context of a larger down move.

US_Dollar_Pullback_Threatened_as_Prices_Approach_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Pullback Threatened as Prices Approach Key Resistance

US DOLLAR Prices are approaching major resistance at the intersection of the 50% Fibonacci extension and the top of a rising channel set from late August (10143), with early signs of negative RSI divergence hinting pullback is ahead. Initial support stands at 10067, the 38.2% Fib.

US_Dollar_Pullback_Threatened_as_Prices_Approach_Key_Resistance_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Pullback Threatened as Prices Approach Key Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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