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US Dollar May Pull Back Before Broad-Based Rally Resumes

US Dollar May Pull Back Before Broad-Based Rally Resumes

2011-09-23 02:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe US Dollar may see a near-term pullback but critical breakouts on the S&P 500 and crude oil hint risk aversion will keep the broader trend pointing higher.

S&P 500 – Prices appear to have validated the bearish Flag setup we have been monitoring over recent weeks with a close below the formation’s bottom. The bears now stand to challenge support at 1113.10 and 1080.10. The Flag’s lower boundary, now at 1140.90, has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_Before_Broad-Based_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar May Pull Back Before Broad-Based Rally Resumes

CRUDE OIL Prices sank through support at $84.61 – the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level as well as the bottom of a Flag bearish formation pattern analogous to the one noted for the S&P 500 – and went on to pierce the 38.2% boundary at $80.97. The door is now open for a decline to the 50% extension at $78.03. The 38.2% level has been recast as near-term resistance.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_Before_Broad-Based_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar May Pull Back Before Broad-Based Rally Resumes

GOLD Prices continue to inch toward validation of a double top below the $1900 figure, with the latest push lower taking out support at $1745.25. From here, sellers will move to challenge support at $1702.90, the August 25 low. The $1745.25 level has been recast as resistance, with a corrective swing above that exposing retest of the $1800 figure.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_Before_Broad-Based_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar May Pull Back Before Broad-Based Rally Resumes

US DOLLAR Prices are testing 76.4% Fibonacci extension resistance at 9,985, with a break higher exposing the measured target implied by the Aug 30 – Sep 14 rally and subsequent Sep 15 correction at 10,078. However, overbought RSI studies hint a pullback may be in order before the advance resumes. Initial support lines up at 9,923 – the 61.8% extension level – with a break below eyeing the bottom of a rising channel carved out since the swing low in late August.

US_Dollar_May_Pull_Back_Before_Broad-Based_Rally_Resumes_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar May Pull Back Before Broad-Based Rally Resumes

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